Morning Grains Report 04/16/18

WHEAT
General Comments Wheat markets were lower Friday on weak export sales and on demand concerns continued to be the main feature of the market. There were also some forecasts for improved precipitation in the western Great Plains. World prices remain somewhat below those of the US, so export demand should remain relatively hard to find. The Winter Wheat crop is out of dormancy and is trying to develop, but it remains too dry and temperatures have been either very warm or very cold. The weekend system missed the dry areas, but brought very cold temperatures and a lot of snow to the northern Great Plains and northern Midwest. Rain was reported in the southern Midwest. Forecasts still call for dry weather in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas early this week. USDA showed generally poor crop ratings in its crop progress and condition reports last week, and the crop seems to be regressing as condition ratings were worse than the previous week.
Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather or some light precipitation. Temperatures should average mostly below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 464, 461, and 478 May, with resistance at 483, 485, and 494 May. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 491, 485, and 479 May, with resistance at 500, 507, and 514 May. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed. Support is at 610, 608, and 605 May, and resistance is at 620, 634, and 636 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-SRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001602 Open Interest is 630,569
: Positions :
: 92,610 150,824 223,578 102,035 167,836 176,838 40,469 595,061 582,707: 35,507 47,862
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 (Change in open interest: 768) :
: 3,661 -12,672 14,005 -12,118 6,682 -3,521 -9,887 2,026 -1,873: -1,258 2,641
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 14.7 23.9 35.5 16.2 26.6 28.0 6.4 94.4 92.4: 5.6 7.6
: Total Traders: 441 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 106 155 159 100 116 30 19 350 354:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRW – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #001612 Open Interest is 301,949
: Positions :
: 56,133 32,699 81,008 68,215 145,769 70,712 15,339 276,068 274,814: 25,881 27,135
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 (Change in open interest: -13,819) :
: -2,588 -9,875 1,912 -8,641 3,127 -5,871 -9,790 -15,189 -14,626: 1,369 807
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.6 10.8 26.8 22.6 48.3 23.4 5.1 91.4 91.0: 8.6 9.0
: Total Traders: 259 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 80 45 81 73 88 23 11 217 196:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
WHEAT-HRSpring – MINNEAPOLIS GRAIN EXCHANGE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #001626 Open Interest is 70,786 :
: Positions :
: 31,521 37,286 3,600 0 1,477 8,191 9,012 719 7,814 3,607 3,796 :
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 :
: 487 3,950 351 0 154 1,494 -454 76 50 9 963 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 44.5 52.7 5.1 0.0 2.1 11.6 12.7 1.0 11.0 5.1 5.4 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 103 :
: 45 34 6 0 . 14 7 7 17 6 13 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

RICE:
General Comments: Rice was higher and closed at Price levels not seen since 2015. The weekly charts are bullish and imply that further gains are likely in coming weeks. Farmers are planting along the Gulf Coast and are trying to get the last of the crop in. It remains too cool for many to plant farther to the north in Arkansas, but some fieldwork is underway. Ideas are that little old crop Rice is available in the cash market, and the situation is not likely to improve before the new crop becomes available late this Summer as farmers are mostly sold out. Farmers will plant more Rice this year, but the increase in planted area is not considered burdensome. Indications are that producers are more willing to plant other crops instead of Rice, and early ideas of a significant increase in planted Rice area have gone away. Planting other crops such as Soybeans or Cotton could mean better returns for some producers.
Overnight News: The Delta should get more precipitation over the knee. Temperatures should be below normal early in the week.
Chart Analysis: Trends are up with objectives of 1330 May. Support is at 1295, 1287, and 1282 May, with resistance at 1320, 1335, and 1343 May.

Disaggregated Commitments of raders Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
ROUGH RICE – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 200,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #039601 Open Interest is 9,072 :
: Positions :
: 4,658 5,800 166 26 64 493 951 46 640 205 724 :
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 :
: 154 1,061 0 0 8 253 -338 0 89 95 -20 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 51.3 63.9 1.8 0.3 0.7 5.4 10.5 0.5 7.1 2.3 8.0 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 53 :
: 16 12 . . . 5 5 . 11 4 14 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a Little lower and faded from resistance at the highs of last week. Overall Price action remains positive. Strong domestic and export demand ideas remain the best support for futures, but there were no announcements of sales on the daily reporting system last week and the weekly export sales report was disappointing to demand bulls. Weather in the Midwest remains too cold, and it has been very wet in southern production areas. Fieldwork has been stalled in almost all areas. Cool and wet conditions are expected this week, and Little or no fieldwork is expected. The market focus will move more from old crop to new crop from now on as traders start to monitor new crop progress and condition along with the old crop demand.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to up with objectives of 393, 410, and 430 May. Support is at 385, 381, and 378 May, and resistance is at 390, 393, and 395 May. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 244 and 255 May. Support is at 231, 230, and 227 May, and resistance is at 241, 242, and 245 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
CORN – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #002602 Open Interest is 2,448,431
: Positions :
: 410,979 204,033 703,715 634,582 1,136,624 469,743 108,436 2,219,019 2,152,808: 229,412 295,623
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 (Change in open interest: 44,555) :
: -5,602 -34,112 54,662 5,493 32,467 -9,848 -11,688 44,705 41,329: -150 3,226
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.8 8.3 28.7 25.9 46.4 19.2 4.4 90.6 87.9: 9.4 12.1
: Total Traders: 945 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 252 151 286 383 412 32 23 803 767:
——————————————————————————————————————-

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions :
:————————————————————————————————————- :
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User : Swap Dealers : Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long : Short : Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short :Spreading :
—————————————————————————————————————-
OATS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE (CONTRACTS OF 5,000 BUSHELS) :
CFTC Code #004603 Open Interest is 6,971 :
: Positions :
: 908 3,146 304 0 0 0 853 0 1,563 368 324 :
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 :
: -171 -263 1 0 -1 0 -101 0 -80 4 -63 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.0 45.1 4.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.2 0.0 22.4 5.3 4.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 29 :
: 7 7 . 0 0 0 5 0 4 8 5 :
—————————————————————————————————————-

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans were lower on what appeared to be profit taking by the longs and as export demand started to fade. Reports from Brazil indicate that basis levels for export were stable at the end of last week after dropping the first part of the week on reports of farm selling by Brazil producers and on the Argentine purchase of US Soybeans. Price differences between the US and Brazil are now much smaller. US farmers are trying to get fieldwork started, but it has either been too cold or too wet for many producers to get started. The weather seems to be moderating overall, but it will still take time for the fields to warm and dry so good fieldwork can begin. There was a big storm through the Midwest and Delta this weekend, and the storm should be in the Southeast early this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 1085 May. Support is at 1047, 1038, and 1034 May, and resistance is at 1064, 1067, and 1070 May. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 379.00, 376.00, and 369.00 May, and resistance is at 388.00, 390.00, and 393.00 May. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed. Support is at 3130, 3100, and 3070 May, with resistance at 3200, 3250, and 3280 May.

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEANS – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #005602 Open Interest is 1,153,636
: Positions :
: 212,607 70,309 275,213 386,187 629,250 219,059 41,860 1,093,066 1,016,632: 60,570 137,004
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 (Change in open interest: 52,202) :
: -4,750 -3,097 28,115 18,348 27,052 6,000 2,137 47,713 54,207: 4,490 -2,005
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 18.4 6.1 23.9 33.5 54.5 19.0 3.6 94.7 88.1: 5.3 11.9
: Total Traders: 719 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 198 166 245 220 269 28 19 572 595:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN OIL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #007601 Open Interest is 572,007
: Positions :
: 114,661 120,426 148,223 144,569 253,563 126,540 17,921 533,993 540,132: 38,015 31,875
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 (Change in open interest: 26,955) :
: 5,087 12,014 17,628 7,792 -4,079 -3,071 355 27,436 25,918: -481 1,037
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 20.0 21.1 25.9 25.3 44.3 22.1 3.1 93.4 94.4: 6.6 5.6
: Total Traders: 382 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 107 101 129 79 79 25 15 294 286:
——————————————————————————————————————-

COT — Supplemental Report – Option and Futures Combined Positions as of April 10, 2018
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:—————————————————————————————- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
——————————————————————————————————————-
SOYBEAN MEAL – CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE
CFTC Code #026603 Open Interest is 570,068
: Positions :
: 139,131 25,496 135,821 130,154 354,675 111,441 20,219 516,548 536,211: 53,519 33,856
: Changes from: April 3, 2018 (Change in open interest: 35,670) :
: 13,902 4,058 25,407 1,264 9,943 -7,297 -3,114 33,276 36,293: 2,394 -624
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 24.4 4.5 23.8 22.8 62.2 19.5 3.5 90.6 94.1: 9.4 5.9
: Total Traders: 346 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 114 53 126 91 107 24 14 303 261:
——————————————————————————————————————-

CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on currency considerations and Chicago price action. Cold weather in the Prairies is increasingly important to the market and has made initial fieldwork impossible. A stronger Canadian Dollar hurt the buyers and created some late selling in the market. Charts show that trends are up. Farmers are selling in moderate amounts. Palm Oil was a little lower again on selling tied to the bearish production data from MPOB. The market thinks it has plenty of Palm Oil for any demand. China reported solid Palm Oil imports for February in data released overnight. Production is seasonally lowered to help ending stocks ideas. The market tested support and the support held for now.
Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 638,293 tons, from 604,094 tons last month.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed to up with objectives of 538.00 and 555.00 May. Support is at 522.00, 517.00, and 515.00 May, with resistance at 527.00, 531.00, and 534.00 May. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2400, 2380, and 2350 July, with resistance at 2430, 2460, and 2500 July.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for more precipitation much of this week, Temperatures mostly below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
Corn HRW SRW Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil
April 65 May 160 May 65 May 72 May 25-May
May 64 May 65 May 71 May
June 57 July 50 July 60 July
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

Brazil Premiums Soybeans Soybean Meal Soybean Oil Corn
Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay Paraguay
April 130 May 110 July
May 130 May plus 7 May 85 September August
June 150 July plus 1 July 82 September
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close – Apr 13
WINNIPEG–The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures Canada.
Values are based on the commodity being delivered at Thunder
Bay, Ontario, unless otherwise noted.
Source: ICE Futures Canada
Price Change
CANOLA
*Par Region 512.90 up 1.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
1 Can 538.70 dn 1.20
2 Can 525.70 dn 1.20
Basis: Vancouver
1 Can 563.70 dn 1.20
2 Can 550.70 dn 1.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada (cnscanada@shaw.ca, or
204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil – April 16
The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 645.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 645.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 645.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 645.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
May/Jun 645.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
Jul/Aug/Sep 645.00 -07.50 Unquoted – –
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 652.50 -05.00 Unquoted – –
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 570.00 -02.50 Unquoted – –
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 2,400 -20.00 Unquoted – –
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid Change Traded
Apr 232.00 -03.00 Unquoted – –
($1=MYR3.8865)

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume – Apr 16
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 176,392 lots, or 6.92 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,853 3,855 3,791 3,793 3,855 3,813 -42 20,194 77,008
Jul-18 3,835 3,871 3,823 3,860 3,885 3,849 -36 50 200
Sep-18 3,975 3,982 3,909 3,919 3,973 3,935 -38 151,696 172,058
Nov-18 3,977 3,977 3,977 3,977 3,962 3,977 15 2 0
Jan-19 4,011 4,029 3,969 3,981 4,013 3,989 -24 4,266 7,340
Mar-19 – – – 4,051 4,051 4,051 0 0 2
May-19 4,092 4,092 4,044 4,065 4,078 4,065 -13 106 488
Jul-19 4,091 4,091 4,091 4,091 4,091 4,091 0 2 14
Sep-19 4,173 4,173 4,137 4,168 4,163 4,151 -12 76 256
Corn
Turnover: 526,694 lots, or 9.18 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 1,745 1,754 1,744 1,754 1,746 1,749 3 18,056 102,970
Jul-18 1,744 1,745 1,735 1,739 1,741 1,739 -2 321,244 481,534
Sep-18 1,746 1,747 1,741 1,741 1,745 1,743 -2 162,960 932,152
Nov-18 1,771 1,773 1,766 1,773 1,773 1,770 -3 106 1,060
Jan-19 1,784 1,785 1,774 1,778 1,785 1,778 -7 24,234 118,076
Mar-19 1,790 1,790 1,783 1,786 1,791 1,786 -5 94 1,628
Soymeal
Turnover: 2,520,096 lots, or 80.88 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 3,175 3,175 3,139 3,148 3,179 3,157 -22 49,410 130,086
Jul-18 3,201 3,203 3,160 3,182 3,201 3,186 -15 464,778 305,230
Aug-18 3,214 3,220 3,191 3,199 3,220 3,199 -21 68 610
Sep-18 3,229 3,232 3,185 3,202 3,230 3,209 -21 1,612,696 3,135,498
Nov-18 3,235 3,235 3,195 3,210 3,231 3,218 -13 342 3,080
Dec-18 3,230 3,230 3,214 3,225 3,235 3,224 -11 16 436
Jan-19 3,259 3,261 3,215 3,233 3,255 3,240 -15 392,246 735,418
Mar-19 3,228 3,231 3,193 3,206 3,225 3,212 -13 540 2,472
Palm Oil
Turnover: 321,336 lots, or 16.20 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Apr-18 – – – 5,034 5,034 5,034 0 0 0
May-18 5,036 5,050 5,010 5,014 5,046 5,026 -20 23,314 59,774
Jun-18 – – – 5,242 5,242 5,242 0 0 4
Jul-18 5,024 5,092 5,024 5,092 5,192 5,058 -134 4 2
Aug-18 5,116 5,116 5,116 5,116 5,126 5,116 -10 10 20
Sep-18 5,042 5,060 5,018 5,024 5,056 5,038 -18 280,208 485,296
Oct-18 – – – 5,110 5,128 5,110 -18 0 4
Nov-18 – – – 5,104 5,104 5,104 0 0 16
Dec-18 – – – 5,182 5,182 5,182 0 0 0
Jan-19 5,096 5,108 5,050 5,054 5,096 5,076 -20 17,800 52,472
Feb-19 – – – 5,200 5,200 5,200 0 0 2
Mar-19 – – – 5,108 5,108 5,108 0 0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 403,008 lots, or 23.48 billion yuan
Open High Low Close Prev. Settle Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
May-18 5,710 5,710 5,650 5,660 5,684 5,682 -2 45,680 116,612
Jul-18 5,732 5,780 5,730 5,742 5,786 5,762 -24 28 68
Aug-18 5,870 5,870 5,870 5,870 5,834 5,870 36 20 34
Sep-18 5,836 5,856 5,796 5,808 5,834 5,832 -2 329,442 851,044
Nov-18 – – – 5,926 5,928 5,926 -2 0 26
Dec-18 – – – 6,018 6,020 6,018 -2 0 0
Jan-19 5,980 6,002 5,944 5,952 5,974 5,978 4 27,838 102,476
Mar-19 – – – 6,096 6,092 6,096 4 0 6
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day’s settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
Questions? Ask Jack Scoville today at 312-264-4322

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