Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures were lower by 2 1/2 to 3 3/4 cents in the front months at Monday’s close. The USDA Crop Progress report showed maturity 11% behind average pace at 86%. North Dakota is only 65% mature, 28 percentage points behind average. Michigan is 27 percentage points behind their average with only 62% corn is mature, and Wisconsin is only 61% mature, 27 percentage points behind their average. The report also revealed corn harvest on the low side of expectations at 30% complete, as compared to the 47% average. Conditions were rated 56% gd/ex, up 1%, with the Brugler500 index up 2 at 349. Export inspections for the week ending 10/17 showed that corn exports had increased 10.6% over last week to 531,744 MT. That brought the MYTD total to 3,038,063 MT (119.6 mbu) only 38.2% of last year’s rate.

DEC 19 Corn closed at $3.87 1/4, down 3 3/4 cents,

MAR 19 Corn closed at $3.99 1/2, down 3 1/4 cents,

MAY 20 Corn closed at $4.06 3/4, down 2 3/4 ,

JUL 20 Corn closed at $4.13, down 2 1/4 cents

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybeans futures close Monday’s session fractionally lower in the nearby contracts. Soybean meal was 80 cents/ton lower, and soy oil closed 12 points higher. Trade ideas for soybean harvest progress were 37 to 40% ahead of the USDA crop progress report, with the actual percentage at 46%. The 5 year average pace is 64%. Soybean conditions were scored at 54% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 index at 345, both unch from last week. Soybean export inspections for the week ending 10/17 were released this morning. The report indicated shipments are 7.24% ahead of last year’s pace. Coming off of a 26.3% increase over last week, the 1.296 MMT of soybean exports brought the MYTD total to 6.458 MMT (237.3 mbu). The main destination for soybeans was China, with 207,445 MT (16%). Brazil’s soybean crop is 21% planted according to AgRural, even with the 5-year average. Other sources show 23%.

NOV 19 Soybeans closed at $9.33 1/4, down 3/4 cents,

JAN 19 Soybeans closed at $9.46 3/4, down 3/4 cents,

MAR 20 Soybeans closed at $9.59, down 1/2 cents,

MAY 20 Soybeans closed at $9.67 1/2, unch,

DEC 19 Soybean Meal closed at $307.70, down $0.80,

DEC 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.48, up 12 points,

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Nearby wheat futures were down by as much as 8 3/4 cents for winter wheat contracts. Spring wheat was also lower, closing down 6 3/4 cents lower on Monday. Winter wheat was reported at 77% planted, and 53% emerged for the 18 states USDA tracks on par with average. Wheat export inspections from the week ending 10/17 showed a increase in wk/wk wheat exports with 565,099 MT, up 67,631 from the week ending 10/10. The report indicated MYTD total is at 10.063 MMT (367.77 mbu), 18.3% ahead of last year’s pace. HRW wheat was the biggest component of the week’s total exports with a 36.4% share. HRS exports encompassed a 33.4% share of the week’s exports, while 22% were soft white. Saudi Arabia purchased 605,000 MT of wheat in their recent tender. Algeria is also tendering for wheat with Tuesday deadline.

DEC 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.23 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents,

DEC 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.25 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents,

DEC 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.37 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Live cattle futures were up by 15 to 47 cents in the front months, while feeder cattle futures were lower by 35 to 75 cents. The Cargill plant in Dodge City is back online today after an explosion left them shutdown late last week. China has lifted the 20-year ban on British beef, the two countries have finalized a 5 year trade deal worth over £230 million. Cash cattle traded at $107-109 Friday, and $173-175 in the meat. The 10/18 CME Feeder Cattle index saw another 37 cent increase, and is up to $145.96. Wholesale boxed beef prices are higher after Monday, but the Chc/Sel spread was widened to 25.69. Choice boxes finished Monday $2.09 higher to $220.13, while Select boxes increased $1.40 to $194.44. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for Monday was 118,000 head, up 1,000 head from last week and even with the same Monday last year.

OCT 19 Cattle closed at $110.950, up $0.475,

DEC 19 Cattle closed at $113.875, up $0.25,

FEB 20 Cattle closed at $119.225, up $0.15,

OCT 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $143.425, down $0.75,

NOV 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.850, unch,

JAN 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $139.100, down $0.35,

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hog futures were mixed at the end of Monday’s session. The CME Lean Hog Index was up by $0.74 on Oct 17 to $65.64. The USDA pork carcass cutout value is $1.50 higher so far at $78.53 at the end of Monday’s session. Ham, up $4.14, lead the way, as most primal cuts finished Monday higher, the exception being loin which was only down 9 cents. The national average base hog for 10/21 was $0.24 higher at $56.94. USDA estimated hog slaughter for Monday was 488,000 head, which is 13,000 head up from last year. The year to date estimated hog slaughter is 102.440 million head, still outpacing last year by 3.61%.

DEC 19 Hogs closed at $67.825, down $0.125,

FEB 19 Hogs closed at $78.175, up $0.70,

APR 20 Hogs closed at $84.400, up $0.95,

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton futures were down by 27 to 72 points at the close on Monday. Cotton harvest was up 8% over last week to 40% complete per the USDA’s crop progress report. That is 5% above average, with Texas 3 percentage points ahead of their average pace. Conditions in the report indicated 41% gd/ex, up 3%, with the Brugler500 unch at 321. The Cotlook A Index was 45 points higher on Oct 18, to 75.45 cents/lb. The updated Adjusted World Price of cotton is now 55.26, up 1.36 from last Thursday’s AWP. Keerti Rathore, from Texas A&M, has genetically removed gossypol from cotton seeds, effectively rendering them harmless, and the FDA has approved his strain of seeds for consumption. Cotton seeds have 49.5 grams of protein/100 grams, and Mr. Rathore hopes they could be a suitable source of protein for feeds or developing nations that face malnutrition.

DEC 19 Cotton closed at 64.44, down 72 points,

MAR 19 Cotton closed at 65.23, down 58 points

MAY 20 Cotton closed at 65.98, down 37 points

JUL 20 Cotton closed at 66.49, down 27 points

-- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!

Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.